The Role of Self-Regulation as a Mediator and Metacognition as a Moderator in the Relationship Between Self-Efficacy and Mathematics Anxiety: A Conditional Process Analysis Among Elementary School Students

: This study aims to examine the relationship between self-efficacy, self-regulation, metacognition, and math anxiety among upper-grade elementary school students, as well as to analyze the mediating role of self-regulation and the moderating role of metacognition in the relationship between self-efficacy and math anxiety, using a conditional process analysis framework. Data were collected from 240 students via questionnaires and analyzed using PROCESS Macro Models 7 and 8. The results indicate that self-efficacy has a positive and significant effect on self-regulation, and that self-regulation significantly mediates the relationship between self-efficacy and math anxiety, with the effect remaining stable across low, moderate, and high levels of metacognition. However, metacognition did not significantly moderate either the self-efficacy–self-regulation pathway or the indirect pathway to math anxiety. These findings indicate that strengthening students’ self-efficacy and self-regulation is sufficient to reduce math anxiety at this developmental stage, regardless of their level of metacognitive ability, and underscore the importance of developing these skills starting in elementary school.