Social-emotional profiles and fluctuations in mathematics achievement: a multiple discriminant analysis of elementary school students

Students’ social-emotional competencies are believed to play a role in academic achievement, but it remains unclear whether these dimensions can distinguish students based on fluctuations in their math report card grades. This study aims to describe and compare the social-emotional profiles of elementary school students—including self-control, social anxiety, and relationship skills—based on groups defined by fluctuations in their math report card grades (rising, stable, and declining), as well as to identify the dimensions that contribute most to distinguishing group membership. The study employs a quantitative approach with a comparative cross-sectional design. The sample consisted of 313 students in grades 4–6 from five public elementary schools, selected using purposive-convenience sampling. Data were collected using the Social and Emotional Learning Competencies Scale adapted from Coelho et al. (2015) and official report card records. Students were grouped based on the difference in their report card scores over two consecutive semesters: the rising group (n=80), the stable group (n=159), and the declining group (n=74). Analysis was conducted using Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) with IBM SPSS 25. The results showed that the discriminant function formed from the combination of the three SEL dimensions was not statistically significant (χ²(6)=6.772, p=.342), thus rejecting H1. Nevertheless, self-control was recorded as the dimension with the highest discriminant correlation in Function 1 (.878), with the centroid indicating that self-control more strongly characterized the improving group compared to the other groups. This finding suggests that internal SEL capacity is a necessary but insufficient condition for explaining fluctuations in mathematics achievement. Fluctuations in report card scores are multidimensional and are also influenced by interpersonal and contextual factors beyond students’ independent emotional capacities. This study contributes as an initial effort to apply MDA to test the discriminant power of SEL dimensions on fluctuations in elementary school students’ mathematics report card scores in the Indonesian context.